Miroslav REDNAK, Tina VOLK and Emil ERJAVEC
pp. 39-47

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the paper is to assess the impact of introducing the Common Agricultural Policy on Croatian agriculture and on individual production sectors. The scenario analysis is made using a static deterministic model which simulates the changes brought about by the differences in prices and budgetary transfers. Compared to the base year, the total agricultural budget is estimated to increase by around 40 % in the first year after the accession and by almost 70 % in the fourth year, after the expiry of the transitional period. The aggregate prices in agriculture are expected to drop by around 4 % after the accession. According to the optimistic scenario, the revenues are expected to slightly increase (by around 1%), and by a pessimistic scenario, revenues could drop substantially (by around 13 %). The revenues in crop production are expected to remain at the same level also after the accession. Revenues in livestock production are expected to drop according to all scenarios. The largest drop in revenues is expected in pig and milk production.

Key words: Croatian agriculture, European Union accession, Economic Accounts for Agriculture

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