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The journal AGRICULTURA (A) publishes scientific works from the following fields: animal science, plant production, farm mechanisation, land management, agricultural economics, ecology, biotechnology, microbiology
ISSN 1581-5439
Karmen PAŽEK and Črtomir ROZMAN
pp. 13-17

The latest developments in investment analysis offer a number of valuable insights into possible ways of evaluating investment opportunities, encountering the weaknesses of net present value criterion. More specifically, irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing are conditions that Net Present Value does not include but they alter the investment decision in a determinant way. By employing contingent claims analysis in tangible investments better assessment results can be derived. In this paper, an emphasis is made to modify the Net Present criterion by incorporating the real options approach. Its application is demonstrated in an organic spelt production and processing. The Net Present Value indicates that the decision of a spelt processing for animal fodder is unfeasible (NPVt = - 1.144,84 €) while the real options approach differentiates the results by organic spelt grain production for human nutrition (strategic real option of spelt grain, NPVSRO = 127.96 €). The conclusion is that the real options approach can be proved useful when assessing projects with uncertainty and irreversibility and it can provide a new way of examining agricultural investment decisions.

Key words: real options, Net Present Value Analysis, Black-Scholes model, organic spelt processing


Uporaba realnih opcij za oceno poslovnih alternativ pri predelavi pire

Raziskave s področja investicijske analize kažejo možnosti uporabe več pristopov za oceno investicijskih priložnosti, katere pa lahko vključujejo tudi določene slabosti ocenjenega parametra neto sedanje vrednosti. Definirano natančneje, ireverzibilnost, negotovost in časovna komponenta so tisti pogoji, ki jih neto sedanja vrednost kot taka v sami oceni sicer ne vključuje, imajo pa pomembno vlogo pri deterministični oceni investicije. Z upoštevanjem prej navedenih pogojev, je ocena investicije realnejša. V prispevku je prikazana modifikacija parametra neto sedanje vrednosti, upoštevajoč metodologijo realnih opcij. Aplikacija slednjega je prikazana na primeru pridelave in predelave pire. Ocena neto sedanje vrednosti kaže, da je poslovna alternativa predelave pire za potrebe krme živalim finančno neupravičena (NPVt = - 1.144,84 €), medtem ko je pridelava in predelava pire za potrebe prehrane ljudi upravičena (NPVSRO = 127,96 €). Zaključimo lahko, da je uporaba metodologije realnih opcij uporabna predvsem pri projektih, kjer imamo opravka s pogoji negotovosti in ireverzibilnosti.

Ključne besede: realne opcije / neto sedanja vrednost / Black – Scholes model / ekološka predelava pire


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