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From December 2015 Agricultura journal will be published in partnership with De Gruyter Open (degruyteropen.com), the world's second largest publisher of Open Access academic content, and part of the De Gruyter group which has over 260 years of publishing history. De Gruyter Open closely cooperates with the majority of abstracting and indexing services, universities and libraries, providing a wide availability of journal's content and increasing its visibility. Agricultura's full-text articles will be found also at the new address on the De Gruyter Open's platform in following weeks.


Publishing support

Publishing of the journal Agricultura is financially supported by Slovenian Research Agency.

Izdajanje revije Agricultura je finančno podprto s strani Javne agencije za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije.


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The journal AGRICULTURA (A) publishes scientific works from the following fields: animal science, plant production, farm mechanisation, land management, agricultural economics, ecology, biotechnology, microbiology
ISSN 1581-5439
Karmen PAŽEK and Črtomir ROZMAN
pp. 61-67
 
ABSTRACT
 
The paper presents the integrated technologic-economic deterministic simulation system for decision-making support in agri-food production. Under current agricultural situation and conditions the standard management evaluation methods do not account the uncertainty. An emphasis was made on the use of standard financial analysis (i.e. Cost Benefit Analysis, CBA) and its indicator, net present value (NPVt) upgraded with the real options approach for fruit processing as a supplementary activity on a part time farm. The application of real options (RO) was presented using the binomial model. Three different apple processing alternatives were assessed; juice, vinegar and dried apples. Real options have an important value in decision management where standard methods of investment analysis are upgraded and take into consideration stochastic elements as well.
 
Key words: fruit processing, simulation, investments, binominal models

Slovenian:
 
Uporaba binomskih modelov za oceno investicij v agroživilstvu

V prispevku so predstavljeni integrirani tehnološko – ekonomski simulacijski modeli za podporo odločanju v agroživilstvu. Specifičnost razmer in pogojev v kmetijstvu pogosto ne omogoča uporabe standardnih evalvacijskih metod, saj l-te ne upoštevajo pogojev negotovosti. V prispevku je poudarke na uporabi t.i. standardne finančne analize (t.i. primerjalna analiza skupnih prihodkov in skupnih stroškov, CBA) s parametrov neto sedanje vrednosti (NPVt). Finančna analiza je bila nad grajena z metodologijo realnih opcij ter aplicirana na primeru predelave sadja v različne proizvode v okviru dopolnilne dejavnosti na kmetijah. Aplikacija metodologije realnih opcij je bila predstavljena z binomskim modelom. Ocenjevane so bile naslednje poslovne alternative: sok, kis in suho sadje. Pomembnost metodologije realnih opcij se namreč kaže predvsem v kontekstu, kjer se lahko standardne metode finančne analize nadgradijo in pri tem morebiti še upoštevajo stohastične elemente analize.

Ključne besede: sadjarstvo / simulacija / binomski model / predelava sadja / investicije


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