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From December 2015 Agricultura journal will be published in partnership with De Gruyter Open (degruyteropen.com), the world's second largest publisher of Open Access academic content, and part of the De Gruyter group which has over 260 years of publishing history. De Gruyter Open closely cooperates with the majority of abstracting and indexing services, universities and libraries, providing a wide availability of journal's content and increasing its visibility. Agricultura's full-text articles will be found also at the new address on the De Gruyter Open's platform in following weeks.


Publishing support

Publishing of the journal Agricultura is financially supported by Slovenian Research Agency.

Izdajanje revije Agricultura je finančno podprto s strani Javne agencije za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije.


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The journal AGRICULTURA (A) publishes scientific works from the following fields: animal science, plant production, farm mechanisation, land management, agricultural economics, ecology, biotechnology, microbiology
ISSN 1581-5439

Miroslav REDNAK, Tina VOLK and Emil ERJAVEC
pp. 39-47

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the paper is to assess the impact of introducing the Common Agricultural Policy on Croatian agriculture and on individual production sectors. The scenario analysis is made using a static deterministic model which simulates the changes brought about by the differences in prices and budgetary transfers. Compared to the base year, the total agricultural budget is estimated to increase by around 40 % in the first year after the accession and by almost 70 % in the fourth year, after the expiry of the transitional period. The aggregate prices in agriculture are expected to drop by around 4 % after the accession. According to the optimistic scenario, the revenues are expected to slightly increase (by around 1%), and by a pessimistic scenario, revenues could drop substantially (by around 13 %). The revenues in crop production are expected to remain at the same level also after the accession. Revenues in livestock production are expected to drop according to all scenarios. The largest drop in revenues is expected in pig and milk production.

Key words: Croatian agriculture, European Union accession, Economic Accounts for Agriculture


Slovenian:

Ali pristop k Evropski uniji bistveno spremeni gospodarske razmere v hrvaškem kmetijstvu: ocena učinka za ključne proizvodne sektorje na podlagi statičnega determinističnega modeliranja na kmetijah

Namen prispevka je oceniti vpliv uvedbe skupne kmetijske politike na Hrvaško kmetijstvo in na posamezne proizvodne sektorje. Analiza scenarijev je narejena z uporabo statičnega determinističnega modela, ki simulira spremembe, ki so jih prinesle razlike v cenah in proračunskih transferjih. V primerjavi z izhodiščnim letom, je skupni kmetijski proračun v prvem letu po pristopu ocenjen na povečanje za okoli 40%, ter na povečanje za skoraj 70% po izteku prehodnega obdobja. Agregirane cene v kmetijstvu naj bi se znižala za okoli 4% po pristopu. Po optimističnem scenariju, se pričakuje, da se bodo prihodki nekoliko povečali (za približno 1%), in s pesimističnega scenarija, bi prihodki občutno padli (za približno 13%). Pričakuje se, da bodo prihodki iz rastlinske pridelave ostali na isti ravni tudi po pristopu. Pričakuje pa se padec prihodkov v živinoreji ne glede na scenarije. Največji padec prihodkov se pričakuje v prašičereji in mlečni proizvodnji.

Ključne besede: Hrvaško kmetijstvo / pristop k Evropski uniji / ekonomski izračuni za kmetijstvo


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